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About the impact of rising module prices on the photovoltaic industry pattern

 On July 2, 2020, in Xinjiang Daxin Energy's polysilicon project, the welded joint of the sewage outlet valve was broken, resulting in material leakage and explosion. On the evening of July 19, 2020, a flash explosion occurred in the distillation unit of a polysilicon enterprise in Xinjiang. As a result, these two accidents will inevitably affect the production of polysilicon materials. If spare parts are readily available, it will take a week to resume production at the earliest. If there is no inventory, it may affect about a month.
    The matter was not a big deal at first, and I thought it was nothing at first, but then the development of the situation was surprising.
     First, the Xinjiang safety supervision department required all crystalline silicon enterprises to conduct a comprehensive self-inspection of production shutdown, and the output was further reduced.
    Then there is an epidemic in Xinjiang, prevention and control are upgraded, and logistics and transportation are blocked.
    The top 5 polysilicon companies in the country account for a large proportion, and the industry concentration ratio is high. As soon as everyone discussed, they used to cut prices and hurt each other. It is time to take this opportunity to increase the price, so I increased it a little and found that everyone can Accept, the Biking accident and the epidemic are out there. If it rises a little more, everyone can still accept it, then it will rise a little more, and this rise will continue to rise by 30%. Polysilicon companies are all happy, and they have made up for the loss of the accident and the epidemic, and they have made a lot of money.
     The profit from the increase in the price of polysilicon material made other raw material companies in the industry jealous. Silver paste was the first to jump in, and I also wanted to increase the price, so it rose by 25%. Not to be outdone, photovoltaic glass has also risen by more than 10%; finally, even the adhesive film, backplane, welding tape, and aluminum frame have also entered the price hike.
     What is this? Is it too big to have something? The accident and epidemic in Xinjiang have nothing to do with you, can you be a little more conscious and not take advantage of the fire?
     If at this time, there is an industry leader who uses his position and strength to restrain these apolitical guys, let them not make trouble, and then suffer a small loss and subsidize a little, so that the price of photovoltaic modules will not skyrocket, then , This industry leader will definitely be supported by the whole industry, and the real leader of the cost photovoltaic industry.
     It’s just a pity that there is no such leader. An integrated enterprise uses its own pricing advantage to pass on the pressure of upstream price increases into costs and benefits. The advantages of integrated enterprises are highlighted. There are huge profits. The strong price increase of silicon materials, silicon wafers, and batteries took advantage of the accident and epidemic in Xinjiang to reduce the dimension of module competitors.
    Whether this wishful thinking will succeed, I don't see it, there are three reasons:
 1. China is a human society, a hero has three gangs, and a boss needs a lot of younger brothers to be stable. If you only rely on technology and means to be the boss, then Suntech will not fall at all.
2. Many state-owned and central enterprises have suffered a lot from this component price increase. They are the real gold owners of the industry. Through this component surge event, people with lofty ideals should realize that the industry cannot form a real monopoly , Although single crystal is highly efficient, polycrystalline cannot be left out in the cold, and thin films should also be supported and supported, so that the industry can develop.
3. The current epidemic situation in the United States, Brazil and India is at its peak. Europe, Australia and Japan are facing the second wave of the epidemic. The prospects of overseas photovoltaic installers in the second half of the year are unclear. It is an investment, not a production necessity. If the price of components rises further, the impact will be no less than the 531 policy in 2018. The domestic installation volume may drop significantly, and may even be lower than in 2019. It is hoped that companies from all parties will not pay too much attention to short-term interests in the immediate future. From a long-term perspective, all parties in the industry can make profits before they can move forward.

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